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Another busy week lies ahead on the United States economic calendar, with a raft of labor market data in focus.
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Crypto markets are showing a rare green Monday morning in Asia following last week’s big declines, though the recovery might be short-lived.
While inflation appears contained, despite a fresh round of tariff-related headlines, the labor market remains an evolving narrative.
Core PCE inflation data matched expectations last week, reinforcing hopes for more Federal Reserve rate cuts.
“The labor market prints this week will begin to show us if the curve is going to steepen from here or if the Fed is really going to throw real rates even lower for an even crazier melt-up in equities, gold, silver, and Bitcoin,” commented macroeconomics researcher ‘Capital Flows’.
“The markets are looking ahead to the October and December Fed meetings as more data comes in,” said the Kobeissi Letter.
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Economic Events Sept. 29 to Oct. 3
Tuesday will offer some job openings data and consumer confidence reports as the big week of labor market data begins.
Wednesday has September’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector and serves as a significant indicator of overall economic conditions.
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Wednesday also has more ADP Nonfarm Employment data, and Thursday will see initial jobless claims data, shedding more light on the condition of the labor market.
Friday’s unemployment reports represent the number of new jobs created during the previous month, along with the percentage of people actively seeking employment.
One of the Fed’s two mandates is full employment, and it considers labor market changes when determining its policy decisions.
Key Events This Week:
1. August JOLTS Job Openings data – Tuesday
2. CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
3. Sept. ADP Nonfarm Employment data – Wednesday
4. Sept. ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Wednesday
5. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
6. September Jobs Report -…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 28, 2025
On Friday, Fed Vice-chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman reiterated that she believes decisive interest rate cuts are needed to ward off rising trouble in the job market.
“Recent data show a materially more fragile labor market along with inflation that, excluding tariffs, has continued to hover not far above our target,” Bowman said.
Negative data or figures coming in below expectations this week could reinforce that premise.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets are showing rare gains this Monday morning, which has been typically red for the past few weeks. Total capitalization is up 2.2% to $3.95 trillion as markets attempt to claw back some of last week’s losses.
Bitcoin reclaimed $112,000 in early trading in Asia but could not overcome resistance there and fell back to $111,640 at the time of writing.
Ethereum made similar gains, topping $4,140 after adding 2.5% but it too was starting to retreat again.
Altcoins doing better included Solana, Cardano, Chainlink, Hyperliqui, and Avalanche, but all of them sold off heavily last week.
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